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 May 30, 2009
International Energy Outlook 2009

 The International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO2009) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2009 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009), (March 2009). Here are the key highlights of that report.

Highlights 

(May 27, 2009) World marketed energy consumption is projected to increase by 44 percent from 2006 to 2030. Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries increases by 73 percent, compared with an increase of 15 .percent in the OECD countries.

In the IEO2009 reference case-which reflects a scenario in which current laws and policies remain unchanged throughout the projection period-world marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44 percent over the 2006 to 2030 period. Total world energy use rises from 472 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2006 to 552 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 678 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (Figure 1). The current worldwide economic downturn dampens world demand for energy in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows. In the longer term, with economic recovery anticipated after 2010, most nations return to trend growth in income and energy demand. 

The most rapid growth in energy demand from 2006 to 2030 is projected for nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD nations). Total non-OECD energy consumption increases by 73 percent in the IEO2009 reference case projection, as compared with a 15-percent increase in energy use among the OECD countries. Strong long-term GDP growth in the emerging economies of the non-OECD countries drives the fast-paced growth in energy demand. In all the non-OECD regions combined, economic activity-measured by GDP in purchasing power parity terms-increases by 4.9 percent per year on average, as compared with an average of 2.2 percent per year for the OECD countries. 

The IEO2009 reference case projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources over the 2006 to 2030 projection period (Figure 2). Fossil fuels (liquid fuels and other petroleum,1 natural gas, and coal) are expected to continue supplying much of the energy used worldwide. Liquids supply the largest share of world energy consumption over the projection period; however, their share falls from 36 percent in 2006 to 32 percent in 2030, as projected high world oil prices lead many energy users, especially in the industrial and electric power sectors, to switch away from liquid fuels when feasible.